Neural network emulation of the human ventricular cardiomyocyte action potential for more efficient computations in pharmacological studies.

Computer models of the human ventricular cardiomyocyte action potential (AP) have reached a level of detail and maturity that has led to an increasing number of applications in the pharmaceutical sector. However, interfacing the models with experimental data can become a significant computational burden. To mitigate the computational burden, the present study introduces a neural network (NN) that emulates the AP for given maximum conductances of selected ion channels, pumps, and exchangers. Its applicability in pharmacological studies was tested on synthetic and experimental data. The NN emulator potentially enables massive speed-ups compared to regular simulations and the forward problem (find drugged AP for pharmacological parameters defined as scaling factors of control maximum conductances) on synthetic data could be solved with average root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of 0.47 mV in normal APs and of 14.5 mV in abnormal APs exhibiting early afterdepolarizations (72.5% of the emulated APs were alining with the abnormality, and the substantial majority of the remaining APs demonstrated pronounced proximity). This demonstrates not only very fast and mostly very accurate AP emulations but also the capability of accounting for discontinuities, a major advantage over existing emulation strategies. Furthermore, the inverse problem (find pharmacological parameters for control and drugged APs through optimization) on synthetic data could be solved with high accuracy shown by a maximum RMSE of 0.22 in the estimated pharmacological parameters. However, notable mismatches were observed between pharmacological parameters estimated from experimental data and distributions obtained from the Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay initiative. This reveals larger inaccuracies which can be attributed particularly to the fact that small tissue preparations were studied while the emulator was trained on single cardiomyocyte data. Overall, our study highlights the potential of NN emulators as powerful tool for an increased efficiency in future quantitative systems pharmacology studies.

Understanding the impact of numerical solvers on inference for differential equation models.

Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used to describe biological or physical systems must be solved approximately using numerical methods. Perniciously, even those solvers that seem sufficiently accurate for the forward problem, i.e. for obtaining an accurate simulation, might not be sufficiently accurate for the inverse problem, i.e. for inferring the model parameters from data. We show that for both fixed step and adaptive step ODE solvers, solving the forward problem with insufficient accuracy can distort likelihood surfaces, which might become jagged, causing inference algorithms to get stuck in local 'phantom' optima. We demonstrate that biases in inference arising from numerical approximation of ODEs are potentially most severe in systems involving low noise and rapid nonlinear dynamics. We reanalyse an ODE change point model previously fit to the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany and show the effect of the step size on simulation and inference results. We then fit a more complicated rainfall run-off model to hydrological data and illustrate the importance of tuning solver tolerances to avoid distorted likelihood surfaces. Our results indicate that, when performing inference for ODE model parameters, adaptive step size solver tolerances must be set cautiously and likelihood surfaces should be inspected for characteristic signs of numerical issues.

Strengthening cardiac therapy pipelines using human pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes.

Advances in hiPSC isolation and reprogramming and hPSC-CM differentiation have prompted their therapeutic application and utilization for evaluating potential cardiovascular safety liabilities. In this perspective, we showcase key efforts toward the large-scale production of hiPSC-CMs, implementation of hiPSC-CMs in industry settings, and recent clinical applications of this technology. The key observations are a need for traceable gender and ethnically diverse hiPSC lines, approaches to reduce cost of scale-up, accessible clinical trial datasets, and transparent guidelines surrounding the safety and efficacy of hiPSC-based therapies.

The impact of uncertainty in hERG binding mechanism on in silico predictions of drug-induced proarrhythmic risk.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Drug-induced reduction of the rapid delayed rectifier potassium current carried by the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) channel is associated with increased risk of arrhythmias. Recent updates to drug safety regulatory guidelines attempt to capture each drug's hERG binding mechanism by combining in vitro assays with in silico simulations. In this study, we investigate the impact on in silico proarrhythmic risk predictions due to uncertainty in the hERG binding mechanism and physiological hERG current model. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Possible pharmacological binding models were designed for the hERG channel to account for known and postulated small molecule binding mechanisms. After selecting a subset of plausible binding models for each compound through calibration to available voltage-clamp electrophysiology data, we assessed their effects, and the effects of different physiological models, on proarrhythmic risk predictions. KEY RESULTS: For some compounds, multiple binding mechanisms can explain the same data produced under the safety testing guidelines, which results in different inferred binding rates. This can result in substantial uncertainty in the predicted torsade risk, which often spans more than one risk category. By comparison, we found that the effect of a different hERG physiological current model on risk classification was subtle. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The approach developed in this study assesses the impact of uncertainty in hERG binding mechanisms on predictions of drug-induced proarrhythmic risk. For some compounds, these results imply the need for additional binding data to decrease uncertainty in safety-critical applications.

Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics.

When using mathematical models to make quantitative predictions for clinical or industrial use, it is important that predictions come with a reliable estimate of their accuracy (uncertainty quantification). Because models of complex biological systems are always large simplifications, model discrepancy arises-models fail to perfectly recapitulate the true data generating process. This presents a particular challenge for making accurate predictions, and especially for accurately quantifying uncertainty in these predictions. Experimentalists and modellers must choose which experimental procedures (protocols) are used to produce data used to train models. We propose to characterise uncertainty owing to model discrepancy with an ensemble of parameter sets, each of which results from training to data from a different protocol. The variability in predictions from this ensemble provides an empirical estimate of predictive uncertainty owing to model discrepancy, even for unseen protocols. We use the example of electrophysiology experiments that investigate the properties of hERG potassium channels. Here, 'information-rich' protocols allow mathematical models to be trained using numerous short experiments performed on the same cell. In this case, we simulate data with one model and fit it with a different (discrepant) one. For any individual experimental protocol, parameter estimates vary little under repeated samples from the assumed additive independent Gaussian noise model. Yet parameter sets arising from the same model applied to different experiments conflict-highlighting model discrepancy. Our methods will help select more suitable ion channel models for future studies, and will be widely applicable to a range of biological modelling problems.

Leak current, even with gigaohm seals, can cause misinterpretation of stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte action potential recordings.

AIMS: Human-induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (iPSC-CMs) have become an essential tool to study arrhythmia mechanisms. Much of the foundational work on these cells, as well as the computational models built from the resultant data, has overlooked the contribution of seal-leak current on the immature and heterogeneous phenotype that has come to define these cells. The aim of this study is to understand the effect of seal-leak current on recordings of action potential (AP) morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Action potentials were recorded in human iPSC-CMs using patch clamp and simulated using previously published mathematical models. Our in silico and in vitro studies demonstrate how seal-leak current depolarizes APs, substantially affecting their morphology, even with seal resistances (Rseal) above 1 GΩ. We show that compensation of this leak current is difficult due to challenges with obtaining accurate measures of Rseal during an experiment. Using simulation, we show that Rseal measures (i) change during an experiment, invalidating the use of pre-rupture values, and (ii) are polluted by the presence of transmembrane currents at every voltage. Finally, we posit that the background sodium current in baseline iPSC-CM models imitates the effects of seal-leak current and is increased to a level that masks the effects of seal-leak current on iPSC-CMs. CONCLUSION: Based on these findings, we make recommendations to improve iPSC-CM AP data acquisition, interpretation, and model-building. Taking these recommendations into account will improve our understanding of iPSC-CM physiology and the descriptive ability of models built from such data.

Model-driven optimal experimental design for calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Models of the cardiomyocyte action potential have contributed immensely to the understanding of heart function, pathophysiology, and the origin of heart rhythm disturbances. However, action potential models are highly nonlinear, making them difficult to parameterise and limiting to describing 'average cell' dynamics, when cell-specific models would be ideal to uncover inter-cell variability but are too experimentally challenging to be achieved. Here, we focus on automatically designing experimental protocols that allow us to better identify cell-specific maximum conductance values for each major current type. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed an approach that applies optimal experimental designs to patch-clamp experiments, including both voltage-clamp and current-clamp experiments. We assessed the models calibrated to these new optimal designs by comparing them to the models calibrated to some of the commonly used designs in the literature. We showed that optimal designs are not only overall shorter in duration but also able to perform better than many of the existing experiment designs in terms of identifying model parameters and hence model predictive power. CONCLUSIONS: For cardiac cellular electrophysiology, this approach will allow researchers to define their hypothesis of the dynamics of the system and automatically design experimental protocols that will result in theoretically optimal designs.

Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models.

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly mis-specify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Models of the cardiac L-type calcium current: A quantitative review.

The L-type calcium current ( I CaL ) plays a critical role in cardiac electrophysiology, and models of I CaL are vital tools to predict arrhythmogenicity of drugs and mutations. Five decades of measuring and modeling I CaL have resulted in several competing theories (encoded in mathematical equations). However, the introduction of new models has not typically been accompanied by a data-driven critical comparison with previous work, so that it is unclear which model is best suited for any particular application. In this review, we describe and compare 73 published mammalian I CaL models and use simulated experiments to show that there is a large variability in their predictions, which is not substantially diminished when grouping by species or other categories. We provide model code for 60 models, list major data sources, and discuss experimental and modeling work that will be required to reduce this huge list of competing theories and ultimately develop a community consensus model of I CaL . This article is categorized under: Cardiovascular Diseases > Computational Models Cardiovascular Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

Neural network emulation of the human ventricular cardiomyocyte action potential: a tool for more efficient computation in pharmacological studies.

Computer models of the human ventricular cardiomyocyte action potential (AP) have reached a level of detail and maturity that has led to an increasing number of applications in the pharmaceutical sector. However, interfacing the models with experimental data can become a significant computational burden. To mitigate the computational burden, the present study introduces a neural network (NN) that emulates the AP for given maximum conductances of selected ion channels, pumps, and exchangers. Its applicability in pharmacological studies was tested on synthetic and experimental data. The NN emulator potentially enables massive speed-ups compared to regular simulations and the forward problem (find drugged AP for pharmacological parameters defined as scaling factors of control maximum conductances) on synthetic data could be solved with average root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of 0.47mV in normal APs and of 14.5mV in abnormal APs exhibiting early afterdepolarizations (72.5% of the emulated APs were alining with the abnormality, and the substantial majority of the remaining APs demonstrated pronounced proximity). This demonstrates not only very fast and mostly very accurate AP emulations but also the capability of accounting for discontinuities, a major advantage over existing emulation strategies. Furthermore, the inverse problem (find pharmacological parameters for control and drugged APs through optimization) on synthetic data could be solved with high accuracy shown by a maximum RMSE of 0.21 in the estimated pharmacological parameters. However, notable mismatches were observed between pharmacological parameters estimated from experimental data and distributions obtained from the Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay initiative. This reveals larger inaccuracies which can be attributed particularly to the fact that small tissue preparations were studied while the emulator was trained on single cardiomyocyte data. Overall, our study highlights the potential of NN emulators as powerful tool for an increased efficiency in future quantitative systems pharmacology studies.

Nuanced Interactions between AKAP79 and STIM1 with Orai1 Ca2+ Channels at Endoplasmic Reticulum-Plasma Membrane Junctions Sustain NFAT Activation.

A-kinase anchoring protein 79 (AKAP79) is a human scaffolding protein that organizes Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein phosphatase calcineurin, calmodulin, cAMP-dependent protein kinase, protein kinase C, and the transcription factor nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT1) into a signalosome at the plasma membrane. Upon Ca2+ store depletion, AKAP79 interacts with the N-terminus of STIM1-gated Orai1 Ca2+ channels, enabling Ca2+ nanodomains to stimulate calcineurin. Calcineurin then dephosphorylates and activates NFAT1, which then translocates to the nucleus. A fundamental question is how signalosomes maintain long-term signaling when key effectors are released and therefore removed beyond the reach of the activating signal. Here, we show that the AKAP79-Orai1 interaction is considerably more transient than that of STIM1-Orai1. Free AKAP79, with calcineurin and NFAT1 in tow, is able to replace rapidly AKAP79 devoid of NFAT1 on Orai1, in the presence of continuous Ca2+ entry. We also show that Ca2+ nanodomains near Orai1 channels activate almost the entire cytosolic pool of NFAT1. Recycling of inactive NFAT1 from the cytoplasm to AKAP79 in the plasma membrane, coupled with the relatively weak interaction between AKAP79 and Orai1, maintain excitation-transcription coupling. By measuring rates for AKAP79-NFAT interaction, we formulate a mathematical model that simulates NFAT dynamics at the plasma membrane.

Ion channel model reduction using manifold boundaries.

Mathematical models of voltage-gated ion channels are used in basic research, industrial and clinical settings. These models range in complexity, but typically contain numerous variables representing the proportion of channels in a given state, and parameters describing the voltage-dependent rates of transition between states. An open problem is selecting the appropriate degree of complexity and structure for an ion channel model given data availability. Here, we simplify a model of the cardiac human Ether-à-go-go related gene (hERG) potassium ion channel, which carries cardiac IKr, using the manifold boundary approximation method (MBAM). The MBAM approximates high-dimensional model-output manifolds by reduced models describing their boundaries, resulting in models with fewer parameters (and often variables). We produced a series of models of reducing complexity starting from an established five-state hERG model with 15 parameters. Models with up to three fewer states and eight fewer parameters were shown to retain much of the predictive capability of the full model and were validated using experimental hERG1a data collected in HEK293 cells at 37°C. The method provides a way to simplify complex models of ion channels that improves parameter identifiability and will aid in future model development.

A Parameter Representing Missing Charge Should Be Considered when Calibrating Action Potential Models.

Computational models of the electrical potential across a cell membrane are longstanding and vital tools in electrophysiology research and applications. These models describe how ionic currents, internal fluxes, and buffering interact to determine membrane voltage and form action potentials (APs). Although this relationship is usually expressed as a differential equation, previous studies have shown it can be rewritten in an algebraic form, allowing direct calculation of membrane voltage. Rewriting in this form requires the introduction of a new parameter, called Γ0 in this manuscript, which represents the net concentration of all charges that influence membrane voltage but are not considered in the model. Although several studies have examined the impact of Γ0 on long-term stability and drift in model predictions, there has been little examination of its effects on model predictions, particularly when a model is refit to new data. In this study, we illustrate how Γ0 affects important physiological properties such as action potential duration restitution, and examine the effects of (in)correctly specifying Γ0 during model calibration. We show that, although physiologically plausible, the range of concentrations used in popular models leads to orders of magnitude differences in Γ0, which can lead to very different model predictions. In model calibration, we find that using an incorrect value of Γ0 can lead to biased estimates of the inferred parameters, but that the predictive power of these models can be restored by fitting Γ0 as a separate parameter. These results show the value of making Γ0 explicit in model formulations, as it forces modellers and experimenters to consider the effects of uncertainty and potential discrepancy in initial concentrations upon model predictions.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Perspective on the Importance of Parameter Identifiability.

There is an inherent tension in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) between the need to incorporate mathematical descriptions of complex physiology and drug targets with the necessity of developing robust, predictive and well-constrained models. In addition to this, there is no "gold standard" for model development and assessment in QSP. Moreover, there can be confusion over terminology such as model and parameter identifiability; complex and simple models; virtual populations; and other concepts, which leads to potential miscommunication and misapplication of methodologies within modeling communities, both the QSP community and related disciplines. This perspective article highlights the pros and cons of using simple (often identifiable) vs. complex (more physiologically detailed but often non-identifiable) models, as well as aspects of parameter identifiability, sensitivity and inference methodologies for model development and analysis. The paper distills the central themes of the issue of identifiability and optimal model size and discusses open challenges.

Electrophysiological characterization of the hERG R56Q LQTS variant and targeted rescue by the activator RPR260243.

Human Ether-à-go-go (hERG) channels contribute to cardiac repolarization, and inherited variants or drug block are associated with long QT syndrome type 2 (LQTS2) and arrhythmia. Therefore, hERG activator compounds present a therapeutic opportunity for targeted treatment of LQTS. However, a limiting concern is over-activation of hERG resurgent current during the action potential and abbreviated repolarization. Activators that slow deactivation gating (type I), such as RPR260243, may enhance repolarizing hERG current during the refractory period, thus ameliorating arrhythmogenicity with reduced early repolarization risk. Here, we show that, at physiological temperature, RPR260243 enhances hERG channel repolarizing currents conducted in the refractory period in response to premature depolarizations. This occurs with little effect on the resurgent hERG current during the action potential. The effects of RPR260243 were particularly evident in LQTS2-associated R56Q mutant channels, whereby RPR260243 restored WT-like repolarizing drive in the early refractory period and diastolic interval, combating attenuated protective currents. In silico kinetic modeling of channel gating predicted little effect of the R56Q mutation on hERG current conducted during the action potential and a reduced repolarizing protection against afterdepolarizations in the refractory period and diastolic interval, particularly at higher pacing rates. These simulations predicted partial rescue from the arrhythmic effects of R56Q by RPR260243 without risk of early repolarization. Our findings demonstrate that the pathogenicity of some hERG variants may result from reduced repolarizing protection during the refractory period and diastolic interval with limited effect on action potential duration, and that the hERG channel activator RPR260243 may provide targeted antiarrhythmic potential in these cases.

Neural Network Differential Equations For Ion Channel Modelling.

Mathematical models of cardiac ion channels have been widely used to study and predict the behaviour of ion currents. Typically models are built using biophysically-based mechanistic principles such as Hodgkin-Huxley or Markov state transitions. These models provide an abstract description of the underlying conformational changes of the ion channels. However, due to the abstracted conformation states and assumptions for the rates of transition between them, there are differences between the models and reality-termed model discrepancy or misspecification. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of using a mechanistically-inspired neural network differential equation model, a hybrid non-parametric model, to model ion channel kinetics. We apply it to the hERG potassium ion channel as an example, with the aim of providing an alternative modelling approach that could alleviate certain limitations of the traditional approach. We compare and discuss multiple ways of using a neural network to approximate extra hidden states or alternative transition rates. In particular we assess their ability to learn the missing dynamics, and ask whether we can use these models to handle model discrepancy. Finally, we discuss the practicality and limitations of using neural networks and their potential applications.

Immediate and Delayed Response of Simulated Human Atrial Myocytes to Clinically-Relevant Hypokalemia.

Although plasma electrolyte levels are quickly and precisely regulated in the mammalian cardiovascular system, even small transient changes in K+, Na+, Ca2+, and/or Mg2+ can significantly alter physiological responses in the heart, blood vessels, and intrinsic (intracardiac) autonomic nervous system. We have used mathematical models of the human atrial action potential (AP) to explore the electrophysiological mechanisms that underlie changes in resting potential (Vr) and the AP following decreases in plasma K+, [K+]o, that were selected to mimic clinical hypokalemia. Such changes may be associated with arrhythmias and are commonly encountered in patients (i) in therapy for hypertension and heart failure; (ii) undergoing renal dialysis; (iii) with any disease with acid-base imbalance; or (iv) post-operatively. Our study emphasizes clinically-relevant hypokalemic conditions, corresponding to [K+]o reductions of approximately 1.5 mM from the normal value of 4 to 4.5 mM. We show how the resulting electrophysiological responses in human atrial myocytes progress within two distinct time frames: (i) Immediately after [K+]o is reduced, the K+-sensing mechanism of the background inward rectifier current (IK1) responds. Specifically, its highly non-linear current-voltage relationship changes significantly as judged by the voltage dependence of its region of outward current. This rapidly alters, and sometimes even depolarizes, Vr and can also markedly prolong the final repolarization phase of the AP, thus modulating excitability and refractoriness. (ii) A second much slower electrophysiological response (developing 5-10 minutes after [K+]o is reduced) results from alterations in the intracellular electrolyte balance. A progressive shift in intracellular [Na+]i causes a change in the outward electrogenic current generated by the Na+/K+ pump, thereby modifying Vr and AP repolarization and changing the human atrial electrophysiological substrate. In this study, these two effects were investigated quantitatively, using seven published models of the human atrial AP. This highlighted the important role of IK1 rectification when analyzing both the mechanisms by which [K+]o regulates Vr and how the AP waveform may contribute to "trigger" mechanisms within the proarrhythmic substrate. Our simulations complement and extend previous studies aimed at understanding key factors by which decreases in [K+]o can produce effects that are known to promote atrial arrhythmias in human hearts.

Cardiac TdP risk stratification modelling of anti-infective compounds including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the hydroxyl derivative of chloroquine (CQ), is widely used in the treatment of rheumatological conditions (systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis) and is being studied for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Here, we investigate through mathematical modelling the safety profile of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infective agents to determine their risk categories for Torsade de Pointes (TdP) arrhythmia. We performed safety modelling with uncertainty quantification using a risk classifier based on the qNet torsade metric score, a measure of the net charge carried by major currents during the action potential under inhibition of multiple ion channels by a compound. Modelling results for HCQ at a maximum free therapeutic plasma concentration (free C max) of approximately 1.2 µM (malaria dosing) indicated it is most likely to be in the high-intermediate-risk category for TdP, whereas CQ at a free C max of approximately 0.7 µM was predicted to most likely lie in the intermediate-risk category. Combining HCQ with the antibacterial moxifloxacin or the anti-malarial halofantrine (HAL) increased the degree of human ventricular action potential duration prolongation at some or all concentrations investigated, and was predicted to increase risk compared to HCQ alone. The combination of HCQ/HAL was predicted to be the riskiest for the free C max values investigated, whereas azithromycin administered individually was predicted to pose the lowest risk. Our simulation approach highlights that the torsadogenic potentials of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infectives used in COVID-19 prevention and treatment increase with concentration and in combination with other QT-prolonging drugs.

cellmlmanip and chaste_codegen: automatic CellML to C++ code generation with fixes for singularities and automatically generated Jacobians.

Hundreds of different mathematical models have been proposed for describing electrophysiology of various cell types. These models are quite complex (nonlinear systems of typically tens of ODEs and sometimes hundreds of parameters) and software packages such as the Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment (Chaste) C++ library have been designed to run simulations with these models in isolation or coupled to form a tissue simulation. The complexity of many of these models makes sharing and translating them to new simulation environments difficult. CellML is an XML format that offers a widely-adopted solution to this problem. This paper specifically describes the capabilities of two new Python tools: the cellmlmanip library for reading and manipulating CellML models; and chaste_codegen, a CellML to C++ converter. These tools provide a Python 3 replacement for a previous Python 2 tool (called PyCML) and they also provide additional new features that this paper describes. Most notably, they can generate analytic Jacobians without the use of proprietary software, and also find singularities occurring in equations and automatically generate and apply linear approximations to prevent numerical problems at these points.

Use of Patient Health Records to Quantify Drug-Related Pro-arrhythmic Risk.

There is an increasing expectation that computational approaches may supplement existing human decision-making. Frontloading of models for cardiac safety prediction is no exception to this trend, and ongoing regulatory initiatives propose use of high-throughput in vitro data combined with computational models for calculating proarrhythmic risk. Evaluation of these models requires robust assessment of the outcomes. Using FDA Adverse Event Reporting System reports and electronic healthcare claims data from the Truven-MarketScan US claims database, we quantify the incidence rate of arrhythmia in patients and how this changes depending on patient characteristics. First, we propose that such datasets are a complementary resource for determining relative drug risk and assessing the performance of cardiac safety models for regulatory use. Second, the results suggest important determinants for appropriate stratification of patients and evaluation of additional drug risk in prescribing and clinical support algorithms and for precision health.